Mailing Address
CEMFI
Casado del Alisal, 5
Madrid 28014 Spain

Mobile
+ 34 661 784 067

Email
galvez@cemfi.edu.es


Curriculum Vitae pdf



My research covers topics in the fields of
financial economics, applied econometrics and macroeconomics. I will be available for interviews at the 2017 Symposium of the Spanish Economic Association in Barcelona, and the 2018 ASSA Meetings in Philadelphia.

Job Market Paper

Household portfolio choices and nonlinear income risk (Draft available on request)

Awarded Best PhD Student Paper, 2017 CEPR European Conference in Household Finance (Sardinia)

The recent evidence on income dynamics shows that the income risk that households face is highly nonlinear. First, household earnings distributions exhibit significant asymmetries. Second, household earnings display varying degrees of persistence that depend on the size of past and current earnings shocks.  In this paper, I study the role of uninsurable income risk on household portfolio decisions over the life cycle when income risk is nonlinear. I motivate the empirical analysis by analyzing the implications of nonlinear earnings dynamics in a portfolio choice model with participation costs. I then develop a flexible, semi-structural framework to empirically quantify the transmission of latent, time-varying income shocks to household stock market participation and portfolio choice decisions. I provide conditions that guarantee nonparametric identification, and propose a tractable, simulation-based estimation algorithm. Using the recent waves of the PSID, I find that variations in income uncertainty drive sizeable differences in extensive and intensive margin responses to an income shock across households.

Working Papers

Distributional linkages between European sovereign bond and bank asset returns pdf
joint with Javier Mencía, Bank of Spain

We analyse the dependence between sovereign bonds' and banks' asset return distributions with a large panel of European data from 2001 to 2013. Using quantile regressions, we identify nonlinear contemporaneous and lagged dependence. As a result, shocks to crisis-hit sovereign bonds have contemporaneous effects on the whole distribution of banks' returns,  as well as a persistent impact in the tails. Our results offer relevant insights about  the relationship between banking and sovereign crises. In particular, during the recent  financial crisis, banks' asset return distributions have lower means and fatter tails  than in the absence of a simultaneous sovereign crisis.

Market-neutral hedge funds and asset markets: tail or two-state dependence? pdf
joint with Julio A. Crego, Tilburg University

We reconcile opposing evidence found in previous literature about the tail neutrality of market-neutral hedge funds (MNHFs) using US data from 2003 to 2013. In particular, we estimate a regime-switching copula model to show the existence of a common macroeconomic regime that affects the distributions of both MNHF returns and the market index; this, in turn, creates a non-linear dependence, which can be confounded with tail dependence. Moreover, we provide evidence of positive (negative) linear correlation between the market index and MNHFs during bull (bear) periods that coincide with the US business cycle. We show with simulated data from our model that sample tail-based tests do not reject the tail dependence hypothesis, even if the tail dependence parameter is set to zero.
References
Manuel Arellano
CEMFI
Calle Casado del Alisal, 5
Madrid 28014 Spain
+ 34 914 290 551
arellano@cemfi.es
Nezih Guner
CEMFI
Calle Casado del Alisal, 5
Madrid 28014 Spain
+ 34 914 290 551
nezih.guner@cemfi.es
Javier Mencía
Bank of Spain
Calle Alcala, 48
Madrid 28014 Spain
+ 34 913 385 414
javier.mencia@bde.es
Enrique Sentana
CEMFI
Calle Casado del Alisal, 5
Madrid 28014 Spain
+ 34 914 290 551
sentana@cemfi.es