Jesús Bueren


Contact Information:

Casado del Alisal 5,
Madrid 28014, Spain

(+34) 609 664 132

Dante Amengual

Nezih Guner

Josep Pijoan-Mas (main advisor)

I am a PhD candidate in Economics at CEMFI. In this website you can find a copy of my CV and research projects, including my Job Market Paper.

My primary research interests are in the fields of quantitative macroeconomics and applied econometrics. I will be available for interviews at the 2017 SAEe in Barcelona and at the 2018 ASSA Annual Meetings in Philadelphia.

Working Papers

Long-Term Care Needs: Implication for Savings, Welfare and Public Policy [PDF]
(Job Market Paper)

Contrary to the predictions of standard life cycle models, individuals dissave slowly during retirement. I address this puzzle by investigating the role of long-term care (LTC) needs as a determinant of the savings decisions of the elderly and quantify its importance relative to alternative explanations such as medical expenses and bequests. For this purpose, I develop and estimate a model for retired single individuals who are heterogeneous in their access to informal care and make an optimal choice of care hours bought in the market. In order to take into account heterogeneity in both LTC needs and survival probabilities, I model LTC needs using a dynamic latent variable model that summarizes the rich information contained in health surveys into four parsimonious health groups. The main result is that LTC is a key driver of savings for high-income elderly and significantly more important than bequest motives and medical expenses.  In addition, the model highlights the inefficiencies of means-tested LTC programs and shows that 40% of the cross-country variation in dissaving rates can be explained by differences in the provision of LTC by the public sector.

Endogenous Health Groups and Heterogeneous Dynamics of the Elderly [PDF]
(with Dante Amengual and Julio A. Crego)

Health dynamics and its associated medical and care costs have been identified by the macro literature as a major concern of the elderly. Due to its multidimensionality, however, a difficult task faced by researchers is to summarize health parsimoniously into a single state variable. We propose a panel Markov switching model to identify patterns of health heterogeneity where individuals can move across health groups as they age. To estimate the model, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to exploit information from both the cross-sectional and time series dimensions. We identify health groups for individuals in the Health and Retirement Survey for the US. Results show that there exists four clearly differentiated groups depending on individual's physical and mental disabilities. Furthermore, we show that health groups outperform other measures of health commonly used in the literature at explaining the variance in the use of nursing homes, home health care, out of pocket medical expenses and predicted mortality.

Work in Progress

Inequality in Life Expectancies across Europe
(with Radim Bohacek, Laura Crespo, Pedro Mira, and Josep Pijoan-Mas) Coming soon

We use harmonized household panel data from 10 Continental European countries (SHARE) plus England (ELSA) and US (HRS) to provide novel and comparable measurements of the educational gradient in life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy across countries. We uncover large and heterogeneous educational gradients, showing that (a) health inequalities in several Western, Central, and Eastern European countries are similar to or larger than the ones in US and England, while they tend to be smaller (but still important) in the Mediterranean and Scandinavian countries; (b) gradients are substantially larger in disability-free life expectancy than in life expectancy for almost all countries; (c) inequality tends to be larger for males than for females, but less so in disability-free life expectancies; and (d) gradients are mainly driven by differences in health transitions, not mortality, between education types. Detailed cross-country comparison of these gradients reveals that countries with higher income inequality or lower public health spending tend to have larger gradients for males, smaller gradients for females, and hence a larger gender difference in the educational gradients of life expectancy. This points to an important but complex relationship between health and income inequality.

Mismatch Unemployment Across Industries in Spain [PDF]

I measure the contribution of mismatch across industries to the rise in Spanish unemployment between 2006 and 2010. For this purpose, I apply the methodology developed in Sahin, Song, Topa, and Violante (2014). My calibration implies that mismatch across industries is strongly counter-cyclical. During the pre-recession period the fraction of hires lost because of an inefficient distribution of unemployed workers across industries was around 3%. On the contrary, in 2009 the fraction of hires lost grew to around 8%. In spite of this, mismatch across industries cannot explain a significant part of the total increase in unemployment during the Great Recession.

Other Papers

Revisiting MDG Cost Estimates from a Domestic Resource Mobilisation Perspective
[OECD WP306] (with Vararat Atisophon, Gregory De Paepe, Christopher Garroway and Jean-Philippe Stijns)

Upcoming Presentations

European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, December 12-13, 2017
SAEe meeting Barcelona, December 14-16, 2017