CEMFI publishes two series of research papers: Working Papers and Master Theses. The Working Papers series contains research work from full-time professors and PhD students.
Javier Mencía, Enrique Sentana
We compare Semi-Nonparametric expansions of the Gamma distribution with alternative Laguerre expansions, showing that they substantially widen the range of feasible moments of positive random variables. Then, we combine those expansions with a component version of the Multiplicative Error Model to capture the mean reversion typical in positive but stationary financial time series. Finally, we carry out an empirical application in which we compare various asset allocation strategies for Exchange Traded Notes tracking VIX futures indices, which are increasingly popular but risky financial instruments. We show the superior performance of the strategies based on our econometric model.
Gabriele Fiorentini, Alessandro Galesi, Enrique Sentana
We generalise the spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models in Fiorentini, Galesi and Sentana (2014) to bifactor models with pervasive global factors complemented by regional ones. We exploit the sparsity of the loading matrices so that researchers can estimate those models by maximum likelihood with many series from multiple regions. We also derive convenient expressions for the spectral scores and information matrix, which allows us to switch to the scoring algorithm near the optimum. We explore the ability of a model with a global factor and three regional ones to capture inflation dynamics across 25 European countries over 1999-2014.