CEMFI publishes two series of research papers: Working Papers and Master Theses. The Working Papers series contains research work from full-time professors and PhD students.
Javier Mencía, Enrique Sentana
We compare Semi-Nonparametric expansions of the Gamma distribution with alternative Laguerre expansions, showing that they substantially widen the range of feasible moments of positive random variables. Then, we combine those expansions with a component version of the Multiplicative Error Model to capture the mean reversion typical in positive but stationary financial time series. Finally, we carry out an empirical application in which we compare various asset allocation strategies for Exchange Traded Notes tracking VIX futures indices, which are increasingly popular but risky financial instruments. We show the superior performance of the strategies based on our econometric model.
Gabriele Fiorentini, Alessandro Galesi, Enrique Sentana
We generalise the spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models in Fiorentini, Galesi and Sentana (2014) to bifactor models with pervasive global factors complemented by regional ones. We exploit the sparsity of the loading matrices so that researchers can estimate those models by maximum likelihood with many series from multiple regions. We also derive convenient expressions for the spectral scores and information matrix, which allows us to switch to the scoring algorithm near the optimum. We explore the ability of a model with a global factor and three regional ones to capture inflation dynamics across 25 European countries over 1999-2014.
Samuel Bentolila, Ildefonso Mendez, Francisco Maeso
Leaving the parental home is often a decision made together by two people. In this paper we present a theoretical model analyzing moving out as a joint decision and then test its implications using a new dataset of university graduates collected in the southern Spanish region of Murcia in 2004-2006, which includes information on partners and their parents. In equilibrium we find some evidence of the importance of assortative mating in moving out. Studying partnership, work, and moving out decisions simultaneously we obtain that the latter depend positively on own human capital and they are affected differently by maternal and paternal characteristics and with different effects on men and women.
Dante Amengual, Enrique Sentana
We derive computationally simple and intuitive expressions for score tests of Gaussian copulas against Generalised Hyperbolic alternatives, including symmetric and asymmetric Student t, and Hermite polynomial expansions. We decompose our tests into third and fourth moment components, and obtain one-sided Likelihood Ratio analogues, whose asymptotic distribution we provide. We conduct Monte Carlo exercises to assess the finite sample properties of asymptotic and bootstrap versions of our tests. In an empirical application to CRSP stocks, we find that short-term reversals and momentum effects are better captured by non-Gaussian copulas. We estimate their parameters by indirect inference, and devise successful trading strategies.