CV. October 2009

Address: CEMFI. Casado del Alisal 5, 28014, Madrid, Spain

Tel: (+34) 914 290 551   Mobile: (+34) 652 437 069     Fax: (+34) 914 291 056  

E-mail: enrique.moral@gmail.com. Webpage: http://www.cemfi.es/~emoral

Research interests: Econometrics, Growth and Development, Bayesian Model Averaging.

Education

• PhD. Economics. CEMFI, Spain. Supervisor: Manuel Arellano. (expected completion date: June 2010)

• MPhil.  Economics and Finance. CEMFI, Spain. 2005 - 2007

• Licenciado en Economia, University of Las Palmas, Spain. 2000 - 2004

Research Experience

• Visiting Scholar, The World Bank, DECRG, Washington DC, USA. Spring 2009.
• Research Assistant, University of Oviedo, Spain. 2003 - 2004
• Research Assistant, University of Las Palmas, Spain. 2002 - 2003

Professional Experience

• The World Bank, DECRG, Washington DC, USA. Consultant. Summer 2007, Summer 2008
• Solchaga Recio & Asociados, Madrid, Spain. 2006. Summer Internship
• BBVA Bank, Madrid, Spain. January - July 2005. Junior Auditor
• ISS Facility Services, London, UK. September - December 2004. Night Cleaner
• European Subscription Service, Oviedo, Spain. September 2003 - June 2004. Sales Representative
• Teka, Las Palmas, Spain. 1999-2003. Warehouseman

Research Papers

• "Panel Growth Regressions with General Predetermined Variables: likelihood-based Estimation and Bayesian Averaging" (2009) (Job Market Paper)
  [abstract] [download pdf]
• "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach" (2009) World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4830 (revise and resubmit The Review of Economics and Statistics)
  [abstract] [download pdf]
• "Is Infrastructure Capital Productive? A Dynamic Heterogeneous Approach" (2009) (joint work with Cesar Calderon and Luis Serven)
  [abstract] [download pdf]
• "Bayesian Posterior Prediction and Meta-Analysis: An Application to the Value of Travel Time Savings" (2008) MPRA Paper No. 12861 (submitted)
  [abstract] [download pdf]
• "Determinants of Default Probabilities: A BMA Approach" (2009) (joint work with Carlos Gonzalez-Aguado)
  [abstract] [download pdf]
• "Non-linearities in Income and Democracy" (in progress)

• Econometric Society European Winter Meeting, Budapest, Hungary (2009)
• Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Barcelona (2009)
• Conference on Panel Data, Bonn, Germany (2009)
• Mondragone-La Pietra-Moncalieri Doctoral Workshop, Turin (2009)
• Simposium of Economic Analysis, Zaragoza, Spain (2008)
• V Workshop on Efficiency and Productivity, Gijon, Spain (2008)
• Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Milan, Italy (2008)
• Seminar on Efficiency and Productivity, University of Oviedo, Spain. (2007)
• University of Las Palmas, Spain. (2007)

Short Courses

• Growth Development and International Aid by Xavier Sala-i-Martin (Coimbra, Portugal)
• Empirical Policy Evaluation Methods by Richard Blundell (Paris)
• Empirical Strategies by Joshua Angrist (Madrid)
• A primer in Quantile Regression by Victor Chernozhukov (Madrid)

Languages

• Spanish, English

Computer Knowledge

• Microsoft Office, Eviews, Stata, Limdep, SPSS, Tramo-Seats
• Gauss, Matlab, Latex

Memberships

• Econometric Society
• European Economic Association

Other

• Research Associate: Economics of Infrastructure and Transport Research Group, University of Las Palmas

Job Market Paper

"Panel Growth Regressions with General Predetermined Variables: likelihood-based Estimation and Bayesian Averaging"

In this paper I estimate empirical growth models simultaneously considering endogenous regressors and model uncertainty. In order to apply Bayesian methods such as Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to dynamic panel data models with predetermined or endogenous variables and fixed effects, I propose a likelihood function for such models. The resulting maximum likelihood estimator can be interpreted as the LIML counterpart of GMM estimators. Via Monte Carlo simulations, I conclude that the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is better than that of the commonly used standard GMM. In contrast to previous consensus in the empirical growth literature, once endogeneity and model uncertainty are accounted for, empirical results indicate that the estimated convergence rate is not significantly different from zero. Moreover, there seems to be only one variable, the investment ratio, that robustly causes long-run economic growth.

References